Where food prices are heading, in every state

Six-month forecasts for 265 price series: 29 foods in 21 markets, wholesale and retail. Pick your state; where no market is surveyed, the nearest ones are used and the distance is shown. Each forecast is tested against what really happened.

Live · checks every hour

Latest market data: 2026-10. This month's estimate updates on the 1st of each month; forecasts are rebuilt when new FEWS NET and WFP data are published.

Wholesale, per 100 kg bag · FEWS NET

Last price (Aug 26)
₦37,000
Estimate for this month (Nov 26)
₦32,401
range ₦24,574–₦42,722
Forecast Feb 27
₦35,199
−5%
Usually dearest / cheapest
Jul / Oct
seasonal swing 26%
Backtest error, 3 months
17%
no-change guess: 16%
₦22k₦41k₦59k₦78k₦97kSep 23Mar 24Sep 24Mar 25Sep 25Mar 26Sep 26Forecast
Table view
MonthForecast80% range
Sep 26₦34,973₦30,185–₦40,520
Oct 26₦30,774₦24,564–₦38,553
Nov 26₦32,401₦24,574–₦42,722
Dec 26₦32,633₦23,744–₦44,850
Jan 27₦33,674₦23,506–₦48,241
Feb 27₦35,199₦23,572–₦52,560

Expected moves to Apr 2027

Forecast against the last observed price, driven by each market's usual seasonal pattern.

Likely to rise most

  • Watermelons · Monguno, Borno+37%
  • Onions · Damboa, Borno+14%
  • Watermelons · Potiskum, Yobe+12%
  • Spinach · Bayantasha, Yobe+12%
  • Onions · Damagum, Yobe+10%
  • Onions · Gamboru, Borno+9%
  • Oranges · Damagum, Yobe+8%
  • Tomatoes · Damagum, Yobe+8%

Likely to fall most

  • Onions · Damassack (CBM), Borno−22%
  • Cowpeas (White) · Kaura Namoda, Zamfara−20%
  • Cowpeas (Brown) · Kaura Namoda, Zamfara−20%
  • Sorghum (White) · Damaturu, Yobe−20%
  • Maize Grain (White) · Maiduguri, Borno−19%
  • Spinach · Damagum, Yobe−19%
  • Sorghum (White) · Kaura Namoda, Zamfara−19%
  • Sorghum (Brown) · Damaturu, Yobe−19%

How good are these forecasts?

Each forecast moves the last price along that market's usual seasonal pattern (how far each calendar month usually sits above or below the yearly average). For every month of the last year we re-ran the forecast from that point and compared it with what happened, against the simplest alternative: assuming no change. How much of the seasonal pattern to trust was chosen on that test: 75% for FEWS NET, 25% for WFP.

DataHorizonAgromate errorNo-change errorTests
FEWS NETwholesale, weekly1 month ahead10.0%10.0%1,080
FEWS NETwholesale, weekly2 months ahead16.8%18.3%1,080
FEWS NETwholesale, weekly3 months ahead21.3%24.9%1,080
WFPretail, monthly1 month ahead15.5%15.1%1,978
WFPretail, monthly2 months ahead22.4%22.7%1,978
WFPretail, monthly3 months ahead27.0%28.1%1,978

One month ahead the forecasts are no better than assuming no change. Two to three months ahead, wholesale forecasts cut the error by about a seventh; retail ones by a little. Treat the ranges as the honest part: prices land inside the 80% range about four times in five. Data: FEWS NET staple food prices, Nigeria (weekly since 2019, monthly averages) and WFP market monitoring via HDX (monthly); gaps of up to five months filled by interpolation.