See pests, diseases and floods coming, and stop them early.
Every state, every day: the live forecast is checked against the conditions each pest and disease needs, for the crops grown there. Farmers' field reports confirm what the weather suggests, and every warning comes with prevention steps.
- High warnings
- 211
- Medium warnings
- 34
- States affected
- 37
Darker means a higher hazard score in the next 16 days · click a state for its page
Active warnings, next 16 days
Each bar is one day: coloured days meet the conditions the pest or pathogen needs. These are weather-suitability signals from published thresholds, not diagnoses; your ADP extension officer confirms in the field.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (warm stores: average 25°c or more with humidity of 45% or more, when insects breed fastest); 27 of the last 30.
- High · 100
14 of the next 16 days favourable (warm, humid barns: average 26°c or more and humidity of 60% or more); 15 of the last 30.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (warm (22–32°c) and dry (under 1 mm rain) days, when the moth multiplies fastest); 28 of the last 30.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (warm (25–33°c) dry days, when whitefly numbers build up and spread viruses); 28 of the last 30.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (dry days at harvest time in the north, when flocks lose wild grass seed and move onto crops); 28 of the last 30.
- High · 100
14 of the next 16 days favourable (hot, dry days: 32°c or more, no rain, humidity under 50%); 13 of the last 30.
- High · 100
13 of the next 16 days favourable (very dry, hot days: humidity under 25%, 33°c or hotter, no rain); 2 of the last 30.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (long dry spells: no rain, humidity under 55% and 30°c or hotter); 15 of the last 30.
- Medium · 72
7 of the next 16 days favourable (wet, humid days: rain of 2 mm or more, rh 85% or more, 20–28°c); 24 of the last 30.
- Medium · 59
4 of the next 16 days favourable (rain (5 mm or more), humid (rh 80% or more) and hot (28°c or more) days at harvest); 20 of the last 30.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (warm stores: average 25°c or more with humidity of 45% or more, when insects breed fastest); 27 of the last 30.
- High · 100
14 of the next 16 days favourable (warm, humid barns: average 26°c or more and humidity of 60% or more); 15 of the last 30.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (warm (22–32°c) and dry (under 1 mm rain) days, when the moth multiplies fastest); 29 of the last 30.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (warm (25–33°c) dry days, when whitefly numbers build up and spread viruses); 21 of the last 30.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (dry days at harvest time in the north, when flocks lose wild grass seed and move onto crops); 28 of the last 30.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (hot, dry days: 32°c or more, no rain, humidity under 50%); 22 of the last 30.
- High · 100
13 of the next 16 days favourable (very dry, hot days: humidity under 25%, 33°c or hotter, no rain); 10 of the last 30.
- High · 85
13 of the next 16 days favourable (long dry spells: no rain, humidity under 55% and 30°c or hotter); 7 of the last 30.
- Medium · 61
6 of the next 16 days favourable (wet, humid days: rain of 2 mm or more, rh 85% or more, 20–28°c); 20 of the last 30.
- Medium · 56
4 of the next 16 days favourable (rain (5 mm or more), humid (rh 80% or more) and hot (28°c or more) days at harvest); 16 of the last 30.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (warm stores: average 25°c or more with humidity of 45% or more, when insects breed fastest); 27 of the last 30.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (warm, humid barns: average 26°c or more and humidity of 60% or more); 27 of the last 30.
- High · 100
16 of the next 16 days favourable (warm (22–32°c) and dry (under 1 mm rain) days, when the moth multiplies fastest); 29 of the last 30.
- High · 100
15 of the next 16 days favourable (warm (25–33°c) dry days, when whitefly numbers build up and spread viruses); 29 of the last 30.
Report what you see in the field
Weather tells us when a pest or disease can spread. Farmers tell us where it already has. Three reports of the same problem on the same crop in one LGA within two weeks raise an outbreak signal for every farmer nearby.
Loading reports…
Backtest
Would the weather have warned of the 2023 ginger disaster? No. That is why field reports matter.
We ran the ginger leaf-disease rule over June–October at Kachia for 2019–2025. 2023, the year southern Kaduna lost 80–95% of its ginger, had the fewest favourable days. Reports point to infected seed rhizomes and unchecked seed movement, not unusual weather.
So Agromate Early Warning combines weather suitability with farmers' field reports clustered by LGA, and the next step is certified-seed checks on seed sold through the marketplace. A weather-only model would have missed 2023.
Rule: daily mean RH 85% or more, 20–28°C and 2 mm rain or more. Weather: Open-Meteo ERA5 archive at 9.87°N, 7.95°E. Red: the outbreak year.
Outbreaks Nigeria has lived through
What happened, what it cost, and the signal that could have warned farmers first.
2016
Tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta)
Kaduna and the northern tomato belt
More than 80% of Kaduna tomato farms destroyed; state of emergency declared; a basket rose to about ₦42,000.
Lesson: Warm, dry seasons let the moth multiply fast; pheromone-trap counts give weeks of warning.
Vanguard; HortiDaily2016
Fall armyworm arrives in Africa
Ibadan and Ikenne, then nationwide
First African outbreaks confirmed on maize in south-west Nigeria; the pest spread across the continent within two years.
Lesson: Dry spells after planting favour outbreaks; early scouting is cheaper than late spraying.
IITA2022
Worst floods in a decade
34 of 36 states; Jigawa, Kebbi, Kano, Benue, Taraba, Niger, Kogi hardest hit
About 569,000 hectares of farmland damaged, 1.4 million people displaced, food prices up.
Lesson: Dam releases upstream (Lagdo) and heavy rain combine; early harvest and moving stored grain save crops.
OCHA flash update, Nov 20222023
Ginger disease outbreak
Southern Kaduna: Kachia, Kagarko, Jaba, Zango Kataf, Jema'a, Kaura
80–95% of crops lost on more than 2,500 hectares, about ₦12 billion; the sector was still at about 30% of capacity in 2026.
Lesson: Infected seed rhizomes and unchecked seed export spread it, not unusual weather, so field reports and seed checks matter as much as forecasts.
Daily Trust; ThisDay; FreshPlaza2026
Ginger recovery programme
Southern Kaduna, 15 farmer clusters
The Bank of Agriculture is supporting about 3,400 ginger farmers with clean planting material and extension; output is back to about 30% of its earlier level.
Lesson: Recovery is slow and costly. Warning farmers early, and stopping infected seed from moving, is far cheaper.
FreshPlaza2026
Flood outlook: 33 states and the FCT at high risk
14,118 communities in high-risk zones
NIHSA expected high-impact flooding to peak from July to September 2026.
Lesson: The outlook names the risk months in advance; Agromate adds the daily rainfall that tells you which week.
ICIR, April 2026
How each hazard is scored
| Hazard | Crops | Season | A favourable day | Medium / High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger leaf spot and blight | Ginger | Jun–OctNot scored this month | Humid (RH 85% or more), 20–28°C, with rain splash (2 mm or more) | 5 / 9 days of 16 |
| Tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) | Tomato | Oct–JunIn season now | Warm (22–32°C) and dry (under 1 mm rain) days, when the moth multiplies fastest | 7 / 11 days of 16 |
| Fall armyworm | Maize, Sorghum, Millet | May–SepNot scored this month | Warm (24–32°C) dry spells (under 2 mm rain) while the crop is young | 6 / 10 days of 16 |
| Cassava green mite and mealybug | Cassava | Nov–AprIn season now | Long dry spells: no rain, humidity under 55% and 30°C or hotter | 9 / 13 days of 16 |
| Onion thrips | Onion, Garlic | Nov–AprIn season now | Hot, dry days: 32°C or more, no rain, humidity under 50% | 8 / 12 days of 16 |
| Whitefly and leaf curl virus | Pepper, Okra, Watermelon | Nov–MayIn season now | Warm (25–33°C) dry days, when whitefly numbers build up and spread viruses | 9 / 13 days of 16 |
| Aflatoxin at harvest | Maize, Groundnut, Sorghum | Aug–NovIn season now | Rain (5 mm or more), humid (RH 80% or more) and hot (28°C or more) days at harvest | 4 / 7 days of 16 |
| Storage insects (weevils, bruchids, grain borer) | Maize, Sorghum, Cowpea, Rice paddy, Groundnut | Sep–AprIn season now | Warm stores: average 25°C or more with humidity of 45% or more, when insects breed fastest | 10 / 14 days of 16 |
| Quelea birds on ripening grain | Rice paddy, Sorghum, Millet, Wheat | Sep–MayIn season now | Dry days at harvest time in the north, when flocks lose wild grass seed and move onto crops | 11 / 15 days of 16 |
| Yam tuber rot in barns | Yam, Cocoyam | Oct–AprIn season now | Warm, humid barns: average 26°C or more and humidity of 60% or more | 8 / 12 days of 16 |
| Rice blast | Rice paddy | Jul–OctNot scored this month | Very humid (RH 88% or more), 22–27°C, with rain | 5 / 9 days of 16 |
| Soybean rust | Soybean | Aug–OctNot scored this month | Long humid spells: RH 85% or more at 18–28°C | 7 / 11 days of 16 |
| Groundnut leaf spot | Groundnut | Jul–SepNot scored this month | Warm, humid, rainy days: RH 85% or more, 24–30°C, with rain | 6 / 10 days of 16 |
| Cocoa black pod | Cocoa | Jun–NovIn season now | Wet, humid days: rain of 2 mm or more, RH 85% or more, 20–28°C | 6 / 10 days of 16 |
| Mango fruit fly | Mango, Citrus | Feb–JunNot scored this month | Warm days (25–32°C) as fruit ripens | 10 / 14 days of 16 |
| Flood and waterlogging | All crops in the field | Jun–OctNot scored this month | Heavy rain: 40 mm or more in a day | 1 / 3 days of 16 |
| Harmattan bushfire risk | All crops in the field | Nov–MarIn season now | Very dry, hot days: humidity under 25%, 33°C or hotter, no rain | 6 / 10 days of 16 |
| Cold harmattan nights | Tomato, Pepper, Okra, Watermelon | Dec–FebNot scored this month | Nights at 12°C or colder, which stop flowering and fruit set in warm-season vegetables | 3 / 7 days of 16 |
| Heat stress | All crops in the field | Feb–JunNot scored this month | Very hot days: 38°C or more | 3 / 7 days of 16 |
Score (0–100) = favourable days in the next 16 against the High threshold (80%), plus favourable days in the last 30 (20%), because pest and pathogen numbers build up. Each hazard is scored only in its season, only in states that grow the crop (from the state crop lists), and only while the crop is exposed: in the field, at harvest or in store, from the crop calendar. Weather: Open-Meteo, daily, at state capitals.