Very strong El Niño: the Pacific is 3.4°C warmer than normal

El Niño continues to strengthen; a strong-to-very strong event is likely through January–March 2027.

Live · checks every hour
Niño 3.4 this week
+3.4°C
28OCT2026 · +0.2 in 4 weeks
3-month index (RONI)
+1.97°C
ASO 2026
NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
2026-10-08
Record-event odds
83% for Oct–Dec 2026
NOAA CPC
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Thursday, 5 November 2026

Today's El Niño prediction

Niño 3.4, estimated for today

+3.5°C

Very strong · last reading +3.4°C (28OCT2026) · trend +0.35°C a month

  1. 20 Nov

    +3.6

  2. 5 Dec

    +3.7

  3. 20 Dec

    +3.8

  4. 4 Jan

    +3.8

  5. 19 Jan

    +3.7

  6. 3 Feb

    +3.6

The last weekly reading, moved along its 8-week trend (damped over time) and the usual weakening of El Niño from January to May. Recomputed daily from NOAA's weekly data; a guide, not an official forecast.

  • North East

    High · 56

    Dry season: 0 mm of rain expected in 16 days, normal for the time of year; up to 40°C. Hot and dry: prioritise irrigation water, shade perishables and keep firebreaks clear.

  • North West

    Medium · 53

    Dry season: 0 mm of rain expected in 16 days, normal for the time of year; up to 39°C. Some El Niño pressure: watch crops for moisture stress and keep an eye on prices.

  • North Central

    Medium · 44

    Dry season: 0 mm of rain expected in 16 days, normal for the time of year; up to 39°C. Some El Niño pressure: watch crops for moisture stress and keep an eye on prices.

  • South West

    Medium · 34

    14 mm of rain expected in 16 days against a normal of about 23 mm (42% below normal); up to 36°C. Some El Niño pressure: watch crops for moisture stress and keep an eye on prices.

  • South East

    Low · 27

    16 mm of rain expected in 16 days against a normal of about 40 mm (59% below normal); up to 35°C. Little added El Niño pressure in the next two weeks.

  • South South

    Low · 25

    40 mm of rain expected in 16 days against a normal of about 60 mm (34% below normal); up to 36°C. Little added El Niño pressure in the next two weeks.

The four ocean regions, this week

Sea-surface temperature against the 1991–2020 normal. El Niño is declared when Niño 3.4 stays at +0.5°C or more; this event is far beyond that.

  • Niño 4

    +1.4°C

    Moderate · +0.1 in 4 weeks

    What is this?

    Western-central Pacific. Box: -5° to 5° latitude, 160°E to 150°W.

  • Niño 3.4

    +3.4°C

    Very strong · +0.2 in 4 weeks

    What is this?

    The headline index NOAA uses to declare El Niño (+0.5°C or more). Box: -5° to 5° latitude, 170°W to 120°W.

  • Niño 3

    +4.4°C

    Very strong · +0.3 in 4 weeks

    What is this?

    Eastern Pacific. Box: -5° to 5° latitude, 120°W to 90°W.

  • Niño 1+2

    +5.4°C

    Very strong · +0.1 in 4 weeks

    What is this?

    Off Peru and Ecuador; reacts first. Box: -10° to 0° latitude, 90°W to 80°W.

Niño 3.4, weekly, last two years

El Niño +0.5Strong +1.5Very strong +2.0-10+1+2+3Agromate prediction2026-11-20: +3.6°C2026-12-05: +3.7°C2026-12-20: +3.8°C2027-01-04: +3.8°C2027-01-19: +3.7°C2027-02-03: +3.6°C25 dec 201927 dec 202328 oct 2026

Source: NOAA CPC weekly Niño indices, refreshed hourly. Outlook: NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.

What it means for each zone, and what to do

Tendencies from NiMet's 2026 outlook and update and the Copernicus seasonal forecasts, not certainties. Open a zone for actions and its states.

North EastHigh exposure

Drier than average conditions forecast through the season; shorter rains raise the risk of poor late cereal yields and weak pasture.

Do now

  1. Plant early-maturing, drought-tolerant sorghum, millet and cowpea varieties next season.
  2. Store grain and fodder now for the 2027 lean season.
  3. Plan water for livestock; agree grazing routes before the dry season tightens.
AdamawaBauchiBornoGombeTarabaYobe
North WestHigh exposure

Dry spells of up to 21 days were forecast in June–August; heat stress on crops and animals; dry-season irrigation demand rises.

Do now

  1. Prioritise irrigation water for high-value dry-season crops (tomato, onion, pepper).
  2. Watch for tomato leaf miner in warm dry weather; set pheromone traps.
  3. Harvest and dry grain quickly; keep stores dry and raised.
JigawaKadunaKanoKatsinaKebbiSokotoZamfara
North CentralMedium exposure

September rainfall was forecast below average; late-planted maize, soybean and rice in the Middle Belt are most exposed.

Do now

  1. Harvest early-maturing fields promptly; dry to safe moisture.
  2. For rice, protect water in fields at grain fill.
  3. Plan dry-season vegetables with irrigation along the Benue and Niger valleys.
BenueFCTKogiKwaraNasarawaNigerPlateau
South WestMedium exposure

A long August break and a drier September cut second-season maize and vegetables; harmattan may come early and dry.

Do now

  1. Mulch and irrigate second-season maize and vegetables.
  2. Stagger planting to spread risk.
  3. Keep cassava and yam in the ground rather than harvesting into weak prices.
EkitiLagosOgunOndoOsunOyo
South EastLow exposure

Generally less exposed; a drier September and early harmattan can stress vegetables and late maize.

Do now

  1. Irrigate vegetables in dry spells.
  2. Keep seed yams cool and dry for next season.
  3. Watch market prices: northern shortfalls can pull southern prices up.
AbiaAnambraEbonyiEnuguImo
South SouthLow exposure

Least exposed zone; heavier rain is less likely, but flash floods remain possible in cities.

Do now

  1. Keep drains clear in towns.
  2. Use the price signal: sell into northern shortfalls where roads allow.
  3. Store cassava products (garri) for later sale.
Akwa IbomBayelsaCross RiverDeltaEdoRivers

NiMet's 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction expected an early-to-normal onset and normal-to-late end of the rains, with dry spells of up to 21 days across many northern states in June–August. Its August update reported a strong, intensifying El Niño dominating August–October.

Emergency watch: next 16 days

High flood and heat warnings from the live forecast, checked hourly.

  • Harmattan bushfire risk · Borno

    13 days of 16 meet the threshold (very dry, hot days: humidity under 25%, 33°c or hotter, no rain).

    Clear a firebreak of at least 10 metres around farms, barns, stores and haystacks.

  • Harmattan bushfire risk · Katsina

    13 days of 16 meet the threshold (very dry, hot days: humidity under 25%, 33°c or hotter, no rain).

    Clear a firebreak of at least 10 metres around farms, barns, stores and haystacks.

  • Harmattan bushfire risk · Kano

    12 days of 16 meet the threshold (very dry, hot days: humidity under 25%, 33°c or hotter, no rain).

    Clear a firebreak of at least 10 metres around farms, barns, stores and haystacks.

  • Harmattan bushfire risk · Sokoto

    12 days of 16 meet the threshold (very dry, hot days: humidity under 25%, 33°c or hotter, no rain).

    Clear a firebreak of at least 10 metres around farms, barns, stores and haystacks.

  • Harmattan bushfire risk · Yobe

    12 days of 16 meet the threshold (very dry, hot days: humidity under 25%, 33°c or hotter, no rain).

    Clear a firebreak of at least 10 metres around farms, barns, stores and haystacks.

  • Harmattan bushfire risk · Zamfara

    12 days of 16 meet the threshold (very dry, hot days: humidity under 25%, 33°c or hotter, no rain).

    Clear a firebreak of at least 10 metres around farms, barns, stores and haystacks.