South West · State intelligence · 2026 season
Live · checks every hourOyo
Main producer of cassava, pepper. Food security, the 2026 harvest outlook, local market prices, weather and an AI analysis, in one place.
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- Agromate risk index
- 23/100
- Low
- People in Crisis or worse
- Outside CH
- not in the 2026 Cadre Harmonisé analysis
- Projected 2026 harvest
- 6.95m t
- −1.4% vs 2024 · tracked crops
- Rain, next 16 days
- 15 mm
- up to 34°C
- Staple prices
- +1%
- vs a month ago, local markets
Agromate AI
Full analysis of Oyo: outlook to March 2027
The AI reads everything on this page (hunger figures, crop projections, market prices, El Niño status, crop-stress bulletins and the live forecast) and writes an outlook with risks and what to do next.
Risk outlook
The Agromate risk index averages five signals. It is our own index for planning, not an official classification. Each part shows its evidence.
23/100
LowThe average of the parts below. Click any part to see what it measures, how it is calculated and what to do.
- What it measures
- Whether satellites saw crops greening less than normal this season.
- How it is calculated
- 20 points for each of the five JRC ASAP bulletins (May–September 2026) that named the state.
- What pushes it up
- Late rains, dry spells, insecurity that keeps farmers off land, high input costs.
- What to do
- Expect lower local output; watch prices and plan purchases from other states.
- Data
- JRC ASAP Anomaly Hotspots, monthly bulletins.
Climate driver
El Niño Advisory: a strong El Niño
El Niño continues to strengthen; a strong-to-very strong event is likely through January–March 2027. 83% chance of a record-strength event (3-month RONI +2.5°C or more) in Oct–Dec 2026.
What it means for South West: a long August break (little dry season) and a below-average September hit second-season maize and vegetables.
NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 2026-10-08Open the live 3D El Niño monitorCrop stress from satellites, 2026
Sep bulletin: 35–55% of crop area affected; northern cereal harvest otherwise close to average after good rains.
States named: Niger, Bauchi, Adamawa, Kaduna, Plateau.
Oyo was not flagged this month.
What does “crop stress” mean?
Satellites measure how green crops are every ten days. When the active crop area is less green than usual for the time of year, it is flagged as a greenness anomaly. That usually means late or poor rains, dry spells, pests, or fields not planted (for example because of insecurity or input costs). One flagged month is a warning; several in a row usually mean lower yields.
What to do: confirm on the ground, check rainfall and pest reports, and plan purchases or storage for a smaller local harvest.
Pest, disease and weather warnings
The next 16 days of forecast checked against the conditions each pest and disease needs, for crops grown in Oyo.
- High
Pest · Maize
Storage insects (weevils, bruchids, grain borer)
16 of 16 days favourable. Dry grain and beans to a safe moisture (maize 13%, cowpea 12%) before storing.
- High
Pest · Sorghum
Storage insects (weevils, bruchids, grain borer)
16 of 16 days favourable. Dry grain and beans to a safe moisture (maize 13%, cowpea 12%) before storing.
- High
Pest · Cowpea
Storage insects (weevils, bruchids, grain borer)
16 of 16 days favourable. Dry grain and beans to a safe moisture (maize 13%, cowpea 12%) before storing.
- High
Disease · Yam
Yam tuber rot in barns
16 of 16 days favourable. Handle tubers gently at harvest; cuts and bruises are where rot starts.
- High
Pest · Tomato
Tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta)
11 of 16 days favourable. Set pheromone traps (about 20 per hectare) from transplanting and count moths weekly; a rising catch is the early signal.
- Medium
Pest · Pepper
Whitefly and leaf curl virus
11 of 16 days favourable. Raise seedlings under fine insect netting; virus infection in the nursery causes most losses.
Harvest 2026: production, gains and losses
2024 baseline from FAOSTAT national totals, split by this state's rank among the main producers. The 2026 projection adds the national trend, then subtracts reduced planting (conflict, input costs), satellite crop stress and El Niño exposure. Estimates until NAERLS state figures are published.
- Projected 2026 output
- 6.95m t
- 8 tracked crops
- Harvest shortfall vs 2024
- −102k t
- −1.4%
- Likely postharvest loss
- 29k t
- cereals, APHLIS loss rates
| Crop | Rank | Now | 2024 est. | 2026 projection | Gain / loss | Postharvest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassava | #3 | Harvest | 5.76m t | 5.65m t | −1.9% | n/a |
| Yam | minor | Harvest | 817k t | 839k t | +2.8% | n/a |
| Tomato | minor | Planting | 116k t | 120k t | +3.3% | n/a |
| Sorghum | minor | Harvest | 116k t | 109k t | −6.4% | 13k t |
| Maize | minor | Harvest | 100k t | 90k t | −10.0% | 16k t |
| Cowpea | minor | Harvest | 71k t | 69k t | −3.5% | n/a |
| Pepper | #6 | Planting | 40k t | 38k t | −3.4% | n/a |
| Soybean | minor | Harvest | 32k t | 31k t | −1.9% | n/a |
Sources: FAOSTAT crop production, Nigeria (2024); APHLIS postharvest loss estimates, Nigeria; Conflict restricting farmland access, high fuel and fertiliser prices and reduced planted area (FEWS NET June 2026; FAO GIEWS 16 Sep 2026).
Local market prices
Real prices observed in named markets: wholesale per 100 kg bag (FEWS NET, weekly) and retail per mudu, the bowl measure used in northern markets (WFP, monthly; the kg in brackets is what one mudu of that item weighs).
Ibadan · Bodija market
FEWS NET · 26 Aug 2026
| Item | Price | 1 month | 1 year | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowpeas (Brown)per 100 kg bag | ₦160,000 | +8% | – | |
| Cowpeas (White)per 100 kg bag | ₦116,400 | +11% | – | |
| Gari (White)per 50 kg bag | ₦20,000 | +0% | – | |
| Gari (Yellow)per 50 kg bag | ₦48,400 | +1% | – | |
| Maize Grain (White)per 100 kg bag | ₦45,000 | +0% | – | |
| Maize Grain (Yellow)per 100 kg bag | ₦48,200 | −0% | – | |
| Millet (Pearl)per 100 kg bag | ₦64,000 | +0% | – | |
| Palm Oil (Refined)per 25 L keg | ₦47,200 | +0% | – | |
| Rice (5% Broken)per 100 kg bag | ₦104,800 | −4% | – |
Green trend = cheaper for buyers. FEWS NET staple food prices, Nigeria (weekly)
Agromate price board for Oyo (pilot estimates)
- Cassava₦12,300 /100 kg−2%
Per 100 kg bag, converted from the per-tonne pilot price; % compares with the national average.
Food crisis analysis
Cadre Harmonisé is the official food-insecurity analysis for Nigeria and West Africa. Phase 3 is Crisis, Phase 4 Emergency, Phase 5 Catastrophe. The next cycle (Oct–Nov 2026) will update these figures.
Oyo was not covered by the 2025–2026 Cadre Harmonisé analysis, which covers 27 states and the FCT.
Source: Cadre Harmonisé, Nigeria (CILSS / FAO, via HDX). State figures sum the LGA results.
Weather and the next 16 days
Daily rain and top temperature at the state capital
Bars: daily rain (mm), darker for 20 mm or more. Row below: day of month and top temperature. Open-Meteo, live.
Last 60 days
347 mm
Long-term average unavailable.
For cassava farmers this week
Good drying
Dry week ahead: good conditions to harvest and dry produce.
Climate since 1981
+0.14°C per decade; rainfall +82 mm per decade. 2025: +0.5°C and +9% rain vs 1991–2020.
NASA POWER agroclimatology, 1981–2025Season outlook
NiMet's 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction expected an early-to-normal onset and normal-to-late end of the rains, with dry spells of up to 21 days across many northern states in June–August. Its August update reported a strong, intensifying El Niño dominating August–October.
NiMet 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction, 2026Crops farmed in Oyo
Every crop grown here and where it is in its season this month: peak harvest (most supply, lowest prices), mid season (some harvest) or off season (scarce). Below it, pick a priced crop and a month for weather, pests, diseases and prevention.
All 18 crops farmed in Oyo, November
8 at peak harvest, 4 with some harvest, 6 out of season. Tap a crop for its full year.
Peak seasonMid seasonOff season
Month by month for priced crops
Also farmed in Oyo: Cashew, Cocoa, Mango, Okra, Kola nut, Oil palm, Melon, Plantain, Leafy vegetables, Shea.
Maize, month by month
Colour: crop stage. Blue line: typical rainfall for Oyo (1991–2020).
Nov · stage
Harvest
Harvest and drying. Losses are highest now if crops get wet or are left too long.
- Typical rain
- 46 mm
- Mean temperature
- 25.3°C
Losses to watch
About 18% of maize is lost after harvest in Nigeria on average (APHLIS). Dry to 13% moisture or below before bagging. Store off the floor in a ventilated, fumigated store.
Threats in Nov
Past crises and how they were fought
2016 · Fall armyworm first confirmed in Africa on maize near Ibadan and Ikenne, then spread nationwide.
Response: IITA identified it; control moved to scouting, early planting, funnel sprays and biopesticides.
2022 · Floods damaged about 569,000 hectares of farmland, much of it maize and rice in the north.
Response: Early harvest, moving stored grain to high ground, and relief seed for replanting.
General extension guidance (IITA, NAERLS, FAO, state ADPs). Check local conditions with your ADP extension officer.
Trade with Oyo on Agromate
1 listings from Oyo right now, 1.5 t in total. Payment is held in escrow until delivery is confirmed.