North West · State intelligence · 2026 season
Live · checks every hourKaduna
Main producer of maize, ginger, sorghum, soybean. Food security, the 2026 harvest outlook, local market prices, weather and an AI analysis, in one place.
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- Agromate risk index
- 52/100
- High
- People in Crisis or worse
- 2.32 million
- 21.3% · lean season 2026
- Projected 2026 harvest
- 6.58m t
- −13.5% vs 2024 · tracked crops
- Rain, next 16 days
- 0 mm
- up to 37°C
- Staple prices
- –
- no public survey here
Agromate AI
Full analysis of Kaduna: outlook to March 2027
The AI reads everything on this page (hunger figures, crop projections, market prices, El Niño status, crop-stress bulletins and the live forecast) and writes an outlook with risks and what to do next.
Risk outlook
The Agromate risk index averages five signals. It is our own index for planning, not an official classification. Each part shows its evidence.
52/100
HighThe average of the parts below. Click any part to see what it measures, how it is calculated and what to do.
- What it measures
- How many people are already in food crisis, from the official Cadre Harmonisé analysis.
- How it is calculated
- Share of the population in Phase 3 or worse during the 2026 lean season × 250, plus 20 if any LGA is in Phase 4. Capped at 100.
- What pushes it up
- Conflict, displacement, high food prices, poor harvests.
- What to do
- Target food assistance and market support to the worst LGAs (see the food crisis section).
- Data
- Cadre Harmonisé, March 2026 analysis (projected June–August 2026).
Climate driver
El Niño Advisory: a strong El Niño
El Niño continues to strengthen; a strong-to-very strong event is likely through January–March 2027. 83% chance of a record-strength event (3-month RONI +2.5°C or more) in Oct–Dec 2026.
What it means for North West: dry spells of up to 21 days were forecast in June–August; the main cereal harvest is close to average where rains held, but storage and prices into early 2027 need watching.
NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 2026-10-08Open the live 3D El Niño monitorCrop stress from satellites, 2026
Sep bulletin: 35–55% of crop area affected; northern cereal harvest otherwise close to average after good rains.
States named: Niger, Bauchi, Adamawa, Kaduna, Plateau.
Kaduna was flagged this month.
What does “crop stress” mean?
Satellites measure how green crops are every ten days. When the active crop area is less green than usual for the time of year, it is flagged as a greenness anomaly. That usually means late or poor rains, dry spells, pests, or fields not planted (for example because of insecurity or input costs). One flagged month is a warning; several in a row usually mean lower yields.
What to do: confirm on the ground, check rainfall and pest reports, and plan purchases or storage for a smaller local harvest.
Pest, disease and weather warnings
The next 16 days of forecast checked against the conditions each pest and disease needs, for crops grown in Kaduna.
- High
Pest · Tomato
Tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta)
16 of 16 days favourable. Set pheromone traps (about 20 per hectare) from transplanting and count moths weekly; a rising catch is the early signal.
- High
Pest · Cassava
Cassava green mite and mealybug
16 of 16 days favourable. Plant tolerant improved varieties from IITA or the state ADP, and plant early in the rains so plants are well grown before the dry season.
- High
Pest · Onion
Onion thrips
15 of 16 days favourable. Check the leaf base of 20 plants twice a week; act when you count more than 3–5 thrips per plant or see silvery streaks spreading.
- High
Pest · Pepper
Whitefly and leaf curl virus
14 of 16 days favourable. Raise seedlings under fine insect netting; virus infection in the nursery causes most losses.
- High
Pest · Rice paddy
Quelea birds on ripening grain
16 of 16 days favourable. Plant at the same time as neighbours so the whole area ripens and is harvested within a short window.
- High
Pest · Sorghum
Quelea birds on ripening grain
16 of 16 days favourable. Plant at the same time as neighbours so the whole area ripens and is harvested within a short window.
Harvest 2026: production, gains and losses
2024 baseline from FAOSTAT national totals, split by this state's rank among the main producers. The 2026 projection adds the national trend, then subtracts reduced planting (conflict, input costs), satellite crop stress and El Niño exposure. Estimates until NAERLS state figures are published.
- Projected 2026 output
- 6.58m t
- 13 tracked crops
- Harvest shortfall vs 2024
- −1.03m t
- −13.5%
- Likely postharvest loss
- 586k t
- cereals, APHLIS loss rates
| Crop | Rank | Now | 2024 est. | 2026 projection | Gain / loss | Postharvest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maize | #1 | Harvest | 3.08m t | 2.52m t | −18.2% | 441k t |
| Sorghum | #2 | Harvest | 940k t | 799k t | −15.0% | 98k t |
| Cassava | minor | Harvest | 870k t | 776k t | −10.8% | n/a |
| Yam | minor | Harvest | 817k t | 763k t | −6.5% | n/a |
| Tomato | #2 | Planting | 539k t | 510k t | −5.3% | n/a |
| Rice paddy | #6 | Harvest | 420k t | 372k t | −11.3% | 44k t |
| Ginger | #1 | Off season | 253k t | 228k t | −9.7% | n/a |
| Groundnut | #7 | Growing | 178k t | 152k t | −14.6% | n/a |
| Soybean | #2 | Harvest | 166k t | 148k t | −10.9% | n/a |
| Onion | #4 | Planting | 121k t | 112k t | −7.2% | n/a |
| Pepper | #2 | Planting | 119k t | 105k t | −11.5% | n/a |
| Cowpea | minor | Harvest | 71k t | 63k t | −12.2% | n/a |
| Millet | minor | Growing | 39k t | 31k t | −19.3% | 3,064 t |
Sources: FAOSTAT crop production, Nigeria (2024); APHLIS postharvest loss estimates, Nigeria; Conflict restricting farmland access, high fuel and fertiliser prices and reduced planted area (FEWS NET June 2026; FAO GIEWS 16 Sep 2026).
Local market prices
Real prices observed in named markets: wholesale per 100 kg bag (FEWS NET, weekly) and retail per mudu, the bowl measure used in northern markets (WFP, monthly; the kg in brackets is what one mudu of that item weighs).
Nearest surveyed markets. FEWS NET and WFP do not survey a market in Kaduna, so these are the closest markets they do survey. Prices in Kaduna usually differ by transport cost; Agromate field agents will add local markets as the pilot grows.
Zamfara, about 201 km away
Kaura Namoda market
FEWS NET · 26 Aug 2026
| Item | Price | 1 month | 1 year | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowpeas (Brown)per 100 kg bag | ₦91,500 | −2% | – | |
| Cowpeas (White)per 100 kg bag | ₦92,400 | −2% | – | |
| Gari (White)per 50 kg bag | ₦18,400 | −1% | – | |
| Gari (Yellow)per 50 kg bag | ₦18,700 | +0% | – | |
| Groundnuts (Shelled)per 100 kg bag | ₦136,100 | −3% | – | |
| Maize Grain (White)per 100 kg bag | ₦33,750 | −1% | – | |
| Maize Grain (Yellow)per 100 kg bag | ₦33,400 | −2% | – | |
| Millet (Pearl)per 100 kg bag | ₦36,200 | −17% | – | |
| Palm Oil (Refined)per 25 L keg | ₦39,600 | +4% | – |
Green trend = cheaper for buyers. FEWS NET staple food prices, Nigeria (weekly)
Kano, about 202 km away
Kano · Dawanau market
FEWS NET · 26 Aug 2026
| Item | Price | 1 month | 1 year | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowpeas (Brown)per 100 kg bag | ₦92,000 | −12% | – | |
| Cowpeas (White)per 100 kg bag | ₦100,000 | −11% | – | |
| Gari (White)per 50 kg bag | ₦18,000 | −5% | – | |
| Gari (Yellow)per 50 kg bag | ₦19,000 | −5% | – | |
| Groundnuts (Shelled)per 100 kg bag | ₦144,000 | +0% | – | |
| Maize Grain (White)per 100 kg bag | ₦36,000 | +0% | – | |
| Maize Grain (Yellow)per 100 kg bag | ₦38,000 | +0% | – | |
| Millet (Pearl)per 100 kg bag | ₦52,000 | +8% | – | |
| Palm Oil (Refined)per 25 L keg | ₦44,650 | +0% | – |
Green trend = cheaper for buyers. FEWS NET staple food prices, Nigeria (weekly)
Agromate price board for Kaduna (pilot estimates)
- Maize₦31,800 /100 kg−6%
- Sorghum₦33,900 /100 kg−5%
- Soybean₦83,500 /100 kg−4%
- Tomato₦47,300 /100 kg−4%
- Onion₦56,700 /100 kg+0%
- Pepper₦62,600 /100 kg−4%
- Ginger₦114,800 /100 kg−8%
Per 100 kg bag, converted from the per-tonne pilot price; % compares with the national average.
Food crisis analysis
Cadre Harmonisé is the official food-insecurity analysis for Nigeria and West Africa. Phase 3 is Crisis, Phase 4 Emergency, Phase 5 Catastrophe. The next cycle (Oct–Nov 2026) will update these figures.
Oct–Dec 2025
October 2025 analysis
1.48 million
people in Crisis or worse · 13.6% of 10.88 million
- Crisis 1.48 million
- Emergency 0
0 of 23 LGAs classed Phase 3 or worse · worst LGA: Phase 2
Jun–Aug 2026 (peak lean season)
March 2026 analysis (projected)
2.32 million
people in Crisis or worse · 21.3% of 10.88 million
- Crisis 2.17 million
- Emergency 144,941
15 of 23 LGAs classed Phase 3 or worse · worst LGA: Phase 3
By local government area (23)
Lean season 2026 projection; click an LGA for the change since late 2025.
1 Minimal2 Stressed3 Crisis4 Emergency5 Famine
Source: Cadre Harmonisé, Nigeria (CILSS / FAO, via HDX). State figures sum the LGA results.
Weather and the next 16 days
Daily rain and top temperature at the state capital
No meaningful rain expected in the next 16 days.
Bars: daily rain (mm), darker for 20 mm or more. Row below: day of month and top temperature. Open-Meteo, live.
Last 60 days
225 mm
+14% vs the 2016–2025 average (197 mm)
For maize farmers this week
Good drying
Dry week ahead: good conditions to harvest and dry produce.
Climate since 1981
+0.37°C per decade; rainfall +195 mm per decade. 2025: +1.5°C and −22% rain vs 1991–2020.
NASA POWER agroclimatology, 1981–2025Season outlook
NiMet's 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction expected an early-to-normal onset and normal-to-late end of the rains, with dry spells of up to 21 days across many northern states in June–August. Its August update reported a strong, intensifying El Niño dominating August–October.
NiMet 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction, 2026Crops farmed in Kaduna
Every crop grown here and where it is in its season this month: peak harvest (most supply, lowest prices), mid season (some harvest) or off season (scarce). Below it, pick a priced crop and a month for weather, pests, diseases and prevention.
All 20 crops farmed in Kaduna, November
9 at peak harvest, 4 with some harvest, 7 out of season. Tap a crop for its full year.
Peak seasonMid seasonOff season
Month by month for priced crops
Also farmed in Kaduna: Acha, Irish potato, Sweet potato, Cotton, Sugarcane, Tiger nut, Wheat.
Maize, month by month
Colour: crop stage. Blue line: typical rainfall for Kaduna (1991–2020).
Nov · stage
Harvest
Harvest and drying. Losses are highest now if crops get wet or are left too long.
- Typical rain
- 8 mm
- Mean temperature
- 22°C
Losses to watch
About 18% of maize is lost after harvest in Nigeria on average (APHLIS). Dry to 13% moisture or below before bagging. Store off the floor in a ventilated, fumigated store.
Threats in Nov
Past crises and how they were fought
2016 · Fall armyworm first confirmed in Africa on maize near Ibadan and Ikenne, then spread nationwide.
Response: IITA identified it; control moved to scouting, early planting, funnel sprays and biopesticides.
2022 · Floods damaged about 569,000 hectares of farmland, much of it maize and rice in the north.
Response: Early harvest, moving stored grain to high ground, and relief seed for replanting.
General extension guidance (IITA, NAERLS, FAO, state ADPs). Check local conditions with your ADP extension officer.
Trade with Kaduna on Agromate
4 listings from Kaduna right now, 12.2 t in total. Payment is held in escrow until delivery is confirmed.