South South · State intelligence · 2026 season
Live · checks every hourBayelsa
Food security, the 2026 harvest outlook, local market prices, weather and an AI analysis, in one place.
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- Agromate risk index
- 9/100
- Low
- People in Crisis or worse
- Outside CH
- not in the 2026 Cadre Harmonisé analysis
- Projected 2026 harvest
- 1.79m t
- +0.7% vs 2024 · tracked crops
- Rain, next 16 days
- 72 mm
- up to 35°C
- Staple prices
- –
- no public survey here
Agromate AI
Full analysis of Bayelsa: outlook to March 2027
The AI reads everything on this page (hunger figures, crop projections, market prices, El Niño status, crop-stress bulletins and the live forecast) and writes an outlook with risks and what to do next.
Risk outlook
The Agromate risk index averages five signals. It is our own index for planning, not an official classification. Each part shows its evidence.
9/100
LowThe average of the parts below. Click any part to see what it measures, how it is calculated and what to do.
- What it measures
- Whether satellites saw crops greening less than normal this season.
- How it is calculated
- 20 points for each of the five JRC ASAP bulletins (May–September 2026) that named the state.
- What pushes it up
- Late rains, dry spells, insecurity that keeps farmers off land, high input costs.
- What to do
- Expect lower local output; watch prices and plan purchases from other states.
- Data
- JRC ASAP Anomaly Hotspots, monthly bulletins.
Climate driver
El Niño Advisory: a strong El Niño
El Niño continues to strengthen; a strong-to-very strong event is likely through January–March 2027. 83% chance of a record-strength event (3-month RONI +2.5°C or more) in Oct–Dec 2026.
What it means for South South: the least exposed zone, but drier spells late in the year can stress vegetables and raise transport-season prices.
NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 2026-10-08Open the live 3D El Niño monitorCrop stress from satellites, 2026
Sep bulletin: 35–55% of crop area affected; northern cereal harvest otherwise close to average after good rains.
States named: Niger, Bauchi, Adamawa, Kaduna, Plateau.
Bayelsa was not flagged this month.
What does “crop stress” mean?
Satellites measure how green crops are every ten days. When the active crop area is less green than usual for the time of year, it is flagged as a greenness anomaly. That usually means late or poor rains, dry spells, pests, or fields not planted (for example because of insecurity or input costs). One flagged month is a warning; several in a row usually mean lower yields.
What to do: confirm on the ground, check rainfall and pest reports, and plan purchases or storage for a smaller local harvest.
Pest, disease and weather warnings
The next 16 days of forecast checked against the conditions each pest and disease needs, for crops grown in Bayelsa.
- High
Pest · Rice paddy
Storage insects (weevils, bruchids, grain borer)
16 of 16 days favourable. Dry grain and beans to a safe moisture (maize 13%, cowpea 12%) before storing.
- High
Disease · Yam
Yam tuber rot in barns
15 of 16 days favourable. Handle tubers gently at harvest; cuts and bruises are where rot starts.
- High
Disease · Cocoyam
Yam tuber rot in barns
15 of 16 days favourable. Handle tubers gently at harvest; cuts and bruises are where rot starts.
- Low
Pest · Rice paddy
Quelea birds on ripening grain
3 of 16 days favourable. Plant at the same time as neighbours so the whole area ripens and is harvested within a short window.
- Low
Pest · Cassava
Cassava green mite and mealybug
0 of 16 days favourable. Plant tolerant improved varieties from IITA or the state ADP, and plant early in the rains so plants are well grown before the dry season.
- Low
Weather · All crops
Harmattan bushfire risk
0 of 16 days favourable. Clear a firebreak of at least 10 metres around farms, barns, stores and haystacks.
Harvest 2026: production, gains and losses
2024 baseline from FAOSTAT national totals, split by this state's rank among the main producers. The 2026 projection adds the national trend, then subtracts reduced planting (conflict, input costs), satellite crop stress and El Niño exposure. Estimates until NAERLS state figures are published.
- Projected 2026 output
- 1.79m t
- 3 tracked crops
- Harvest gain vs 2024
- +13k t
- +0.7%
- Likely postharvest loss
- 10k t
- cereals, APHLIS loss rates
| Crop | Rank | Now | 2024 est. | 2026 projection | Gain / loss | Postharvest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassava | minor | Harvest | 870k t | 858k t | −1.4% | n/a |
| Yam | minor | Harvest | 817k t | 843k t | +3.3% | n/a |
| Rice paddy | minor | Harvest | 88k t | 86k t | −2.0% | 10k t |
Sources: FAOSTAT crop production, Nigeria (2024); APHLIS postharvest loss estimates, Nigeria; Conflict restricting farmland access, high fuel and fertiliser prices and reduced planted area (FEWS NET June 2026; FAO GIEWS 16 Sep 2026).
Local market prices
Real prices observed in named markets: wholesale per 100 kg bag (FEWS NET, weekly) and retail per mudu, the bowl measure used in northern markets (WFP, monthly; the kg in brackets is what one mudu of that item weighs).
Nearest surveyed markets. FEWS NET and WFP do not survey a market in Bayelsa, so these are the closest markets they do survey. Prices in Bayelsa usually differ by transport cost; Agromate field agents will add local markets as the pilot grows.
Oyo, about 375 km away
Ibadan · Bodija market
FEWS NET · 26 Aug 2026
| Item | Price | 1 month | 1 year | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowpeas (Brown)per 100 kg bag | ₦160,000 | +8% | – | |
| Cowpeas (White)per 100 kg bag | ₦116,400 | +11% | – | |
| Gari (White)per 50 kg bag | ₦20,000 | +0% | – | |
| Gari (Yellow)per 50 kg bag | ₦48,400 | +1% | – | |
| Maize Grain (White)per 100 kg bag | ₦45,000 | +0% | – | |
| Maize Grain (Yellow)per 100 kg bag | ₦48,200 | −0% | – | |
| Millet (Pearl)per 100 kg bag | ₦64,000 | +0% | – | |
| Palm Oil (Refined)per 25 L keg | ₦47,200 | +0% | – | |
| Rice (5% Broken)per 100 kg bag | ₦104,800 | −4% | – |
Green trend = cheaper for buyers. FEWS NET staple food prices, Nigeria (weekly)
Zamfara, about 806 km away
Kaura Namoda market
FEWS NET · 26 Aug 2026
| Item | Price | 1 month | 1 year | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowpeas (Brown)per 100 kg bag | ₦91,500 | −2% | – | |
| Cowpeas (White)per 100 kg bag | ₦92,400 | −2% | – | |
| Gari (White)per 50 kg bag | ₦18,400 | −1% | – | |
| Gari (Yellow)per 50 kg bag | ₦18,700 | +0% | – | |
| Groundnuts (Shelled)per 100 kg bag | ₦136,100 | −3% | – | |
| Maize Grain (White)per 100 kg bag | ₦33,750 | −1% | – | |
| Maize Grain (Yellow)per 100 kg bag | ₦33,400 | −2% | – | |
| Millet (Pearl)per 100 kg bag | ₦36,200 | −17% | – | |
| Palm Oil (Refined)per 25 L keg | ₦39,600 | +4% | – |
Green trend = cheaper for buyers. FEWS NET staple food prices, Nigeria (weekly)
Food crisis analysis
Cadre Harmonisé is the official food-insecurity analysis for Nigeria and West Africa. Phase 3 is Crisis, Phase 4 Emergency, Phase 5 Catastrophe. The next cycle (Oct–Nov 2026) will update these figures.
Bayelsa was not covered by the 2025–2026 Cadre Harmonisé analysis, which covers 27 states and the FCT.
Source: Cadre Harmonisé, Nigeria (CILSS / FAO, via HDX). State figures sum the LGA results.
Weather and the next 16 days
Daily rain and top temperature at the state capital
Bars: daily rain (mm), darker for 20 mm or more. Row below: day of month and top temperature. Open-Meteo, live.
Last 60 days
700 mm
−2% vs the 2016–2025 average (717 mm)
For cassava farmers this week
Wet harvest
Heavy rain during harvest. Dry produce under cover before bagging to avoid mould and aflatoxin.
Climate since 1981
+0.26°C per decade; rainfall −251 mm per decade. 2025: +0.7°C and −20% rain vs 1991–2020.
NASA POWER agroclimatology, 1981–2025Season outlook
NiMet's 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction expected an early-to-normal onset and normal-to-late end of the rains, with dry spells of up to 21 days across many northern states in June–August. Its August update reported a strong, intensifying El Niño dominating August–October.
NiMet 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction, 2026Crops farmed in Bayelsa
Every crop grown here and where it is in its season this month: peak harvest (most supply, lowest prices), mid season (some harvest) or off season (scarce). Below it, pick a priced crop and a month for weather, pests, diseases and prevention.
All 9 crops farmed in Bayelsa, November
6 at peak harvest, 3 with some harvest, 0 out of season. Tap a crop for its full year.
Peak seasonMid seasonOff season
Month by month for priced crops
Also farmed in Bayelsa: Plantain, Oil palm, Cocoyam, Banana, Coconut, Leafy vegetables.
Rice paddy, month by month
Colour: crop stage. Blue line: typical rainfall for Bayelsa (1991–2020).
Nov · stage
Harvest
Harvest and drying. Losses are highest now if crops get wet or are left too long.
- Typical rain
- 118 mm
- Mean temperature
- 26°C
Losses to watch
About 12% of rice paddy is lost after harvest in Nigeria on average (APHLIS). Dry to about 14% moisture. Mills pay less for paddy with stones, chaff or mixed varieties.
Threats in Nov
Past crises and how they were fought
2022 · Floods in Kebbi, Jigawa, Niger and the Benue valley destroyed rice fields before harvest.
Response: Early harvest where possible; dry-season replanting with relief inputs.
General extension guidance (IITA, NAERLS, FAO, state ADPs). Check local conditions with your ADP extension officer.
Trade with Bayelsa on Agromate
No listings from Bayelsa yet. Payment is held in escrow until delivery is confirmed.